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2006: Legislature hangs in the balance
Term limits guarantee the California Legislature will look very different after the 2006 elections; a full one-third of the seats in the Assembly and State Senate are open this year. Our success in electing pro-environmental candidates in 2006 is likely to determine California's environmental health for years to come, because in the next few years, the legislature will make critical decisions regarding global warming, coastal protection, affordable housing, development, wildlife management, and energy resources. To ensure that California remains an environmental leader, we must maximize our electoral gains in 2006.
The crucial tipping point is the June 2006 primary election. Because virtually all of California’s legislative districts favor one party or the other, the key races will be decided during the June primaries. Most of the forty open seats in the State Senate and Assembly will not change party hands; for that reason, CLCV is helping the best environmental leaders win in June. See the chart below: Best- and worst-case scenarios.
The long list of environmental champions who have been “termed out” of the legislature, taking their legislative acumen with them, will get longer. The result is that legions of entrenched lobbyists for the state’s biggest polluters retain the majority of experience and institutional knowledge in Sacramento. CLCV is helping offset that trend by supporting candidates who will dedicate themselves to defending all Californians’ resources and well-being.
In the Legislature, the reality today is that only the Senate has a working environmental majority. In the Assembly, just enough Democrats join Republicans to block the most important environmental legislation. The environmental community relied on the Senate to stop bad bills in 2005 and had to fight hard in the Assembly to get the 41 votes needed to send good bills to the Governor’s desk. Frankly, not many got there.
The 2006 election brings the daunting prospect of losing the reliable environmental majority in Senate. There is an opportunity to gain a modest number of reliable environmental votes in the Assembly, though anti-environmental Democrats may still hold enough seats to block pro-environmental legislation.
These scenarios don’t necessarily mean that the prospects for important environmental bills are bleak. They do mean that it’s likely we’ll have to battle with polluters for key votes from the most fickle lawmakers in both houses.
CLCV plays a key role in electing environmental leaders by interviewing and endorsing the best candidates statewide. We invite every viable candidate for every open seat to participate in our endorsement process, regardless of party, by sending them questionnaires. Unfortunately, only one out of 37 Republican candidates running for 13 open safe Republican seats elected to participate by responding. Disturbingly, this seems to indicate that Republicans in the Legislature, who are averaging less than 5% support on key environmental votes, will not appreciably improve in 2006. On the Democratic side, we face the possible loss of the working environmental majority in the Senate and continued stalemate in the Assembly. Based on our analysis of who is running for which seat, the following scenarios are likely:
| Senate | |
|---|---|
| Current reliable pro-environmental Senate votes: | 20 |
| Number needed to pass or defeat legislation: | 21 |
| Potential losses of reliable Senate votes: | 7 |
| Potential gains over existing poor environmental votes: | 0 |
| Best case outcome—Total environmental votes: | 18 |
| Worst case outcome—Total environmental votes: | 13 |
| Assembly | |
| Current reliable pro-environmental Assembly votes: | 27 |
| Number needed to pass or defeat legislation: | 41 |
| Potential losses of reliable Assembly votes: | 3 |
| Potential gains over existing poor environmental votes: | 10 |
| Best case outcome—Total environmental votes: | 38 |
| Worst case outcome—Total environmental votes: | 28 |
The California League of Conservation Voters is exerting the maximum possible effort to support California’s future environmental leaders:
- We have gotten out in front and made early endorsements for great candidates in the most important races.
- We are sending resources and staff to key campaigns.
- We are spreading the message to CLCV members and other Californians statewide.
CLCV works hard to be the voice of our members. Only with you at our side can we maximize our gains and win these tough primary election contests. Your votes, your calls and letters, and your support for CLCV are critical in preserving democracy for the people and our environment for generations to come.
© 2008 California League of Conservation Voters. Contact us.
